HTT Bond Discounts & SafeSwaps

Every rung priced the careful way — one read, every figure derived from it

An HEX Time Token is a claim on 1 HEX when the HEX day reaches its number, and the redemption right never expires.  So a rung’s whole story is four questions: how far under 1 HEX does it trade, is that discount ahead of or behind a stated convergence path, what yield does the gap imply to maturity, how much can actually be swapped in its pool without moving it, and how much really trades through it day to day.  This table answers all five from a single daily on-chain read — the same file the HTT Charts and LP Levels pages draw.

Δ Close compares the two most recent daily closes — a day’s move, deliberately not called a trend.  Thin rows are honest but fragile: where the pool’s HEX side holds less than ^$15,000 — the anchor side, the money that could actually leave — a small trade moves the price and every derived figure with it, and those rows render muted.  An APR marked † annualizes fewer than 30 days and is mostly noise wearing a percent sign.  A rung past its day shows matured: it redeems 1:1 now, so “years to 1:1” and an APR no longer apply.

The Arithmetic, Column by Column

Discount vs HEX

The pair’s own reserves state how many HEX one HTT fetches — the native ratio.  The discount is 1 − ratio: a rung trading at 0.7317 HEX is 26.8% under its maturity value.  A ratio above 1 is a premium, and the table says so with a minus sign rather than hiding it.  Everything on this page derives from that one ratio and one HEX price, read at the same moment — when two columns disagree about the same token, the cause is almost always two price sources pretending to be one.

Benchmark — an Assumption, Stated as One

The benchmark asks: if a rung converged to 1:1 at a steady 5% per year, what discount should it carry today?  That is 1 − 1.05−t with t the years remaining.  The 5% is a chosen dial, not a market fact — a market can demand more or less convergence yield than 5%, and this page states the assumption so it can be argued with.

Ahead of Schedule

Discount minus benchmark, with the sign spelled out: positive means the rung trades more discounted than the 5% path — ahead of schedule, more convergence yield left in it — and negative means the market has already priced it richer than the path.  A signed column whose direction the reader has to guess is worse than no column, so this one wears its convention in its name.

Fixed ROI and Fixed APR

Buy one HTT for ratio HEX, redeem 1 HEX at maturity: the return in HEX is 1 / ratio − 1, fixed the day you buy because the redemption is fixed.  The APR spreads that return over the wait — and it must be compounded, (1 + ROI)1/t − 1, because simple division flatters long maturities and understates short ones.  A 50% return over 3.4 years is 12.7% a year compounded, not 14.8%; a 2% return over ten days is far more than 73% a year compounded.  Since the column’s whole purpose is comparing rungs of different lengths, simple annualization would misorder the very thing it ranks.  Both figures are denominated in HEX — what the ladder itself promises — not dollars.

SafeSwap

A community rule of thumb: about 2% of a pool’s two-sided value can be swapped without moving the price enough to matter.  It is a heuristic, not a law — but it converts an abstract liquidity figure into the practical question, how much could I actually trade here?  On a ^$3,000 pool the answer is about ^$60, which is the honest warning thin rows carry.

Vol 24h, Speed, and LP APY

Volume here is measured, never quoted: a robot reads every swap in every HTT pool from the chain and buckets them by UTC day, counting the HEX side of each trade — so “Vol 24h” is the most recent full day.  Speed is that volume over the pool’s two-sided value: how much of the pool turned over in a day.  LP APY is what swap fees would pay a liquidity provider at the last seven days’ pace — average speed × the LP share of the fee (0.22%) × 365.  One busy day stretched over a year flatters a pool enormously, which is why the average is a week and the word is pace, not promise.

One Read, One Moment

Every figure above derives from two numbers captured together: the pair’s native ratio and one HEX price.  The assumptions line above the table prints both, with the HEX day used for maturity math — hidden constants are how two honest columns end up disagreeing, so this page keeps them visible and checkable.

Ratios are daily closes from the on-chain history; figures refresh with the morning data pass.  Education, not financial advice — thin pools move on small trades, and every number here moves with them.